Just to make sure that we are all on the same page when talking about what direction we need to go towards in the future I would like to bring your attention to this article in the UK Guardian.
Here are some quotes from the article: “The International Energy Agency is to call today for an energy revolution and a “major de-carbonisation” of global fuel sources as the world confronts tighter oil supplies caused by shrinking investment.” “The IEA was founded during the oil crisis of 1973-74 and acts as energy policy adviser to 28 countries including Britain.”
“The energy watchdog is warning for the first time that oil output could pass its peak as power shifts from “super-majors” to national companies controlled by producer states. It highlights a potential oil-supply crunch.”
“It says the recent surge in prices to just shy of $150 this summer has highlighted the “ultimately finite” nature of oil and gas reserves.”
“The immediate risk to supply is not one of a lack of global resources, but rather a lack of investment,” the report says.
“It says that, on current trends, greenhouse gas emissions will rise by 45% to 41 gigatonnes (Gt) in 2030, with three-quarters of the increase coming from China, India and the Middle East as urbanisation there grows exponentially.”
I’ve been following Peak Oil since November 2001. What this refers to is that world oil production is now peaking an can only fall. The domestic US peak was predicted for 1970 and that’s when it happened. It was followed by the energy crisis of the ’70s. This new peak will be followed by a global crisis.
The investment referred to in the Guardian article is to extract oil faster so that the peak is slightly delayed, but, then, of course, the decline is that much more rapid.
Also, although we here in the US got energy use off to a big start, it’s not us who are going to be the ones who are going to be contributing the most from now (or, soon, more likely) on. It’s “China, India and the Middle East.” How am I going to mitigate that use?
They say the high price of gas is due to the “ultimately finite nature of oil and gas reserves.” This 35 year old energy policy adviser to 28 countries is confirming Peak Oil. Of course they’re very late. I remember when I first saw a national article about it. It was in National Geographic in August of 2004 and THEY were very late!
Imagine a bell-curve. On the left is a century ago - low production, but rising. When peak happens we’re in the middle, at the top of the bell curve. After decline we are on the right of the graph with low production once again. Some important points that aren’t immediately intuitive: One - The problems start when the peak happens - even though we still have half of all petroleum still in reserves. We cannot extract it at an ever increasing rate. We’re used to it and we then don’t have it. Also, supply and demand predicts rising prices! Two. We can’t be totally sure of how much petroleum is still in the ground, but if we double the amount of reserves we think might be a reasonable estimate, we get a curve that peaks less than ten years later! Many of the people I read believe that the World peak has already happened. I wouldn’t doubt it. Global warming is a problem that we must deal with. The consequences are the deaths of many people. Peak oil is a problem in which the consequences is the deaths of much of the world, since they’re dependent on conventional agriculture, which uses petroleum products at every stage of the process of growing, packaging, and moving food. But death isn’t the only specter rearing it’s ugly head in this scenario. With peak oil we have the possibility of the total collapse of law and order and THAT’S what I’m afraid of. If we don’t convert our culture to be sustainable, and do it as fast as we possibly can, we won’t be able to do it at all because it will take energy to make this shift.
Okay. Enough ranting, but I guess that’s what you’re supposed to do in a blog!